A Four-Step Scenario Planning Process for Stronger Alignment Now
How are you? Given the s—-show that we are seeing at the Federal level, the most important message I can share with you at this moment is attend a No Kings protest on October 18 (if you are in the San Francisco Bay Area and are hesitant to attend a protest on your own, please reach out directly and I will share a meeting spot).
In this moment of economic uncertainty, many of our clients are currently working on Scenario Planning. As we’ve shared before, Scenario Planning is a more complex version of, “If it rains, I’ll bring an umbrella,” or even, “I know it might rain, so I’ll bring an umbrella to be prepared.”
Scenario Planning Builds Alignment
Scenario Planning includes three goals:
a) Consider what might happen in the near future (a scenario)
b) Make a plan for that scenario
b) Create alignment among board and staff for the plan
ID: green background, red, orange and light green and white arrows going in different directions across the screen
Four steps for Scenario Planning: Prepare, Set the Context, Build Alignment, Monitor
Now that you understand what Scenario Planning is, how exactly do you do it? Here is an exercise we led recently with the board and leadership team as part of an in-person Strategic Planning Retreat that you can adapt to your organization:
Step 1: Prepare by creating the scenarios
In advance of the in-person retreat, the Design Team (Planning Committee) came up with three scenarios that might happen in the next three to nine months that would impact the organization’s budget and work.
a) Funder risk: major funders shift their priorities and decrease their funding
b) Market risk: the organization receives less fee-for-service work
c) Status quo: the projected budget does not change, current assumptions are correct.
Step 2: Set the context
At the retreat, the board and leadership team reviewed the financial and political context of the organization’s recent work. This included discussing budget shifts over the past year, reviewing current budget trends and reviewing the organization’s strategic plan.
Step 3: Build alignment by exploring decision-making and communication
Participants were divided into three groups and then spent some time answering the questions below on a large Post-it paper:
What data is needed to make decisions if this scenario emerges?
What is the overall appetite for risk, in terms of staffing and reserves?
What kinds of communications would be helpful to track progress towards strategies/scenarios?
Anything else to add?
After small group work, participants came back together to share the proposed plan for each scenario and answer questions.
Step 4: Monitor whether the scenarios are happening
The final step is to schedule in checkpoints to monitor whether the Funder Risk or Market Risk scenarios have emerged. If they have, leaders would refer back to the plan that the leadership team and board agreed on.
As you can see, the entire process requires foresight and follow through. Evaluating where your organization currently is and bringing in that data during the preparation phase (step one) sets the stage to properly set context (step two). Once everyone understands the current state of the organization, then they are able to appropriately weigh potential trajectories together (step three). Finally, a continual check-in and review to see how the plan bears out over time (step four) maintains accountability with the plan. Taking all of the elements together requires effective organization and task management, and is helpful in ensuring that the organization moves in the right direction.
Are you seeking Scenario Planning or Strategic Planning facilitation?
It’s hard to believe that we’re already at the end of 2025! We are booking projects for the last quarter of this year into the first quarter of next. Reach out, we would be happy to learn more about what you are seeking. We’re gearing up for an impactful 2026 and would love to help you prepare for yours as well
Inclusive Strategic Planning for Nonprofits book progress
In addition to client work and teaching, I am working on my book on Inclusive Strategic Planning for Nonprofits: a five-step process to expand energy, alignment, and opportunity, which will be published in early 2026. I am in the second round of feedback on the draft manuscript from beta readers. (Thank you!) My goal is to release a valuable book that creates a clear roadmap for inclusive Strategic Planning. It turns out that some ideas that are very clear in my mind are not as clear on paper! Readers have expressed interest in getting to the key steps of the Strategic Planning process sooner, so I am editing the introductory part.
Intriguingly, the response to the manuscript is exactly what happens in the group processes that we lead: People tend to think that their ideas are clear -- and they might be…but they might not be! In facilitated processes, we use multiple modes of communication and conversation to share ideas, check for understanding, and build alignment. With the book project, I am testing to see how readers respond to different concepts and stories. In either case, one needs openness and humility to design an inclusive and valuable process or book!
Many of you raised your hands to be involved with this project; if you want to be a beta reader or join the launch team, the sign-up form is here.